Leicester_City 1 - 0 Southampton (H) = 40 points
Liverpool 0 - 0 Chelsea (D) = 0 points
Newcastle_United 1 - 1 Aston_Villa (D) = 40 points
Watford 1 - 2 Tottenham_Hotspur (A) = 0 points
Arsenal 0 - 0 Everton (D) = 0 points
Bournemouth 0 - 0 Burnley (D) = 0 points
Round 5 Total = 80 points
Decent haul in Round 5 with two perfect predictions, as Leicester secured a 1-0 home win over Southampton, and Newcastle and Villa shared the spoils in a 1-1 draw at St James Park. With a 19.1% prediction, the 1-0 home win for the Foxes came true, whist the 1-1 draw between Newcastle and Aston Villa was only 11.4%. Both teams here had a high prediction of scoring, which eventually came true with both teams finding the net in a 1-1 draw.
The stalemate at Anfield was impacted by the random request from myself for Chelsea, and the game ended in a 0-0 draw which only had a 8.3% chance of occurring. This scoreline was the fifth highest predicted, but the most surprising was Liverpool failing to score despite the 80.3% prediction.
Looking at the outputs from the model, the game at Vicarage Road was probably just in favour of a home win if the draw predicted was incorrect. The likelihood of a 1-0 or 2-1 home win were both higher, along with the 1-1 draw, than the actual predicted outcome but very pleased that the model did predict that both teams would score.
At the Emirates, the prediction that Everton wouldn't score came true, but surprisingly Arsenal also failed to find the net despite a 86.4% prediction that this would happen. What resulted was a lowly predicted 0-0 draw, especially when Arsenal were 72.1% favourites to win.
Finally, the biggest shock of the round was that the game between Bournemouth and Burnley finished goalless.
The likelihood of this result was just 2.9%, whilst both teams had a very high propensity to score - Bournemouth 75.0% and Burnley 88.4%! So of course based on those factors, the game had to end in a stalemate lol
Round 01 = 20 points
Round 02 = 10 points
Round 03 = 50 points
Round 04 = 10 points
Round 05 = 80 points (170 points total)