Jump to content
FMFA Manager

Nocky

Members
  • Content Count

    319
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    7
  • 2,660,000 [ Donate ]

Nocky last won the day on January 15

Nocky had the most liked content!

Community Reputation

13 Good

1 Follower

About Nocky

  • Rank
    Gunnery Sergeant

Recent Profile Visitors

1,024 profile views
  1. Season 14 - the Villa conundrum? So round 19 is out of the way with another defeat for Villa in a game we dominated. And it got me scratching my head. So often you hear on ESMS managers looking at the stats and saying "I didn't deserve to lose that". I have always been of the view that these things even out over a season but for Villa, this year, it doesn't feel like it's the case. So I delved into our league performance and what I found is shocking! But more of that in a min... Firstly - where are we? The league table looks like this: Pl Team P W D L GF GA GD Pts ------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Liverpool 19 11 6 2 24 10 14 39 2 Sunderland 19 10 4 5 21 14 7 34 3 Everton 19 8 8 3 22 16 6 32 4 Leicester_City 19 7 8 4 24 19 5 29 5 Chelsea 19 6 8 5 25 22 3 26 6 Wolverhampton_Wanderers 19 5 9 5 16 16 0 24 7 Aston_Villa 19 5 8 6 22 22 0 23 8 Manchester_United 19 6 5 8 18 19 -1 23 9 Newcastle_United 19 3 10 6 21 23 -2 19 10 Stoke_City 19 4 7 8 11 23 -12 19 11 Arsenal 19 4 5 10 17 27 -10 17 12 Crystal_Palace 19 3 6 10 18 28 -10 15 So top of the bottom half. Not bad for one of the worst sides in the league on paper and I agree. But after 4 games we were top and after 10 we were 3rd - 4 points off top. Since then we have picked up 7 points from a possible 27 and are now 16 points off the top and only 6 of relegation. Our Champions League hopes are gone and we face a scrap for any European football. It's not the goal scoring that's an issue - we're joint 4th in the league on that stat and only 3 of the top scorers. Potentially it's the goals conceded - but we're joint 5th on that so not exactly shipping them for fun. In fact those figures suggest mid-table - which is what we are. So why? Do we not dominate games? Do we not get enough shots or have enough ball? This is where our season's results are very odd: Round Venue Opposition Result Villa Oppo Counter Posession Shots On Target Most Posession Most Shots Most OT 1 h Chelsea W2-1 N C Neither 53-47 14-7 8-5 Villa Villa Villa 2 a Liverpool W1-0 C N Neither 50-50 8-7 5-3 Equal Villa Villa 3 h Sunderland D1-1 P N Villa 59-41 19-7 9-4 Villa Villa Villa 4 a Stoke W3-0 P N Villa 73-27 23-3 13-2 Villa Villa Villa 5 a Man Utd L1-2 C C Neither 52-48 15-15 8-9 Villa Equal Oppo 6 h Arsenal D1-1 E C Villa 64-36 20-6 12-1 Villa Villa Villa 7 a Everton L0-1 C P Villa 62-38 14-4 6-2 Villa Villa Villa 8 h Newcastle D1-1 C A Villa 59-41 16-5 6-3 Villa Villa Villa 9 a Wolves D1-1 C P Villa 65-35 16-6 11-4 Villa Villa Villa 10 h Man Utd W2-0 P A Neither 67-33 31-6 18-4 Villa Villa Villa 11 a Crystal Palace L0-2 N N Neither 53-47 11-10 4-6 Villa Villa Oppo 12 a Chelsea D2-2 C P/A Villa 66-34 19-7 9-3 Villa Villa Villa 13 h Liverpool D2-2 C C Neither 46-54 5-14 3-8 Oppo Oppo Oppo 14 a Sunderland L0-3 N E Villa 45-55 6-12 5-8 Oppo Oppo Oppo 15 h Stoke D1-1 P P Neither 63-37 29-10 23-4 Villa Villa Villa 16 a Leicester D1-1 C C Neither 53-47 6-4 5-3 Villa Villa Villa 17 a Arsenal W2-0 C A Villa 60-40 8-6 5-2 Villa Villa Villa 18 h Everton L1-2 E P Neither 53-47 13-9 8-3 Villa Villa Villa 19 a Newcastle L0-1 C P/E Villa / Oppo 56-44 16-5 10-3 Villa Villa Villa By my reckoning we have had the counter on tactics for 9 of the 19 matches (plus 10 mins of round 19) and only been countered once. Our record with the counter on tactics is 2 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses We have had the most possession in 16 of the 19 games with one level. The same can be said for shots. We have had the most shots on target in 15 of the 19 games. In 14 matches we have had the best of all 3 stats. Our record in these games - Won 4, drawn 7, lost 3. Now we all know ESMS is a funny game and luck plays its part and i've always assumed that these things even out over time. And, in fairness, the stats say that we should have lost at home to Liverpool and we got an ill deserved draw so there's something in that. But I would then argue that we didn't get what we deserved in multiple of these games - Arsenal (h), Everton (a), Newcastle (h), Wolves (a), Chelsea (a), Stoke (h) to name a few clear ones. When picking a sheet we setup to get the counter / not be countered and i've achieved that. Then we want to create chances and control possession - generally managed that. Not sure what else can be done. We've had 289 shots this season with 168 on target. The opposition have had 143 shots with 77 on target - yet our goal difference is zero! The average possession is 58% vs 42% - yet we've lost more than we've won! This is not me having a moan as, like I say, we're probably performing above ourselves in the league anyway. It just is a real head scratcher for me. I don't know the answers but i'm damn sure going to try and work it out. But maybe it dispels a few myths for ESMS - the counter isn't everything, dominating stats isn't necessarily getting you the win etc. etc. Maybe it's the GK - 9 teams have better GKs - but that doesn't explain Leicester who have a worse one in 4th with fewer goals against. Maybe it's the FWS - every team bar 2 or 3 has better main stats there (although Leicester again can't claim that and they've scored more). Maybe i'm just getting something fundamentally wrong and need to go back to the drawing board. As we approach the end of season, these are all things to be considered as we rebuild for season 15. Interesting stuff I hope you agree.
  2. Nocky

    Villa Duo

    I've had a rethink as I can't sell both for cash - would only want to sell if I could scout someone in. Going to have to re evaluate for a bit as he could still do a job in the U23s if I had a reshuffle.
  3. Villa U23 vs Man Utd U23 Here we go then. After not being able to shake off our chasing pack entirely for a while we get our first opportunity to tie things up - and fittingly against our nearest rivals: Pl Team P W D L GF GA GD Pts ------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Aston_Villa_U23 18 12 5 1 40 9 31 41 2 Manchester_United_U23 18 9 6 3 26 17 9 33 ------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 Derby_County_U23 18 8 6 4 24 14 10 30 4 Sunderland_U23 18 8 6 4 18 15 3 30 5 Leicester_City_U23 18 7 7 4 24 18 6 28 6 Arsenal_U23 18 8 4 6 29 26 3 28 With 2 going up, a win at home will see us promoted as Champions whilst a draw will, in all likelihood be good enough due to our vastly superior goal difference. Even defeat will be good enough if Derby and Sunderland both fail to win. It's fair to say i've thoroughly enjoyed the U23s this season. In all my time on ESMS I can't remember a more dominant performance in a division and we're miles ahead in every stat. It's not over yet but, if we don't go up from here, it'll be a failure of epic proportions. And we've managed it by playing at least one 18r in every game as well! To say i'm chuffed with this is an understatement! The league isn't over yet though and we don't want to let it run longer than it has to. We'd like to have it wrapped up this week so that we can plan for our assault on the Premier League next season.
  4. Nocky

    Villa Duo

    Negotiations to accept these now: Yanga-Mbiwa - 23m @David Welbeck - £27m @BeDoZa
  5. Nocky

    Villa Duo

    Hmm - i'll have a think - not sure how much cash is worth for me at the moment and i'll b able to sell him for more than that to FMFA come eos
  6. Nocky

    Villa Duo

    Possibly next week once Zouma has served his supension
  7. Nocky

    Villa Duo

    M_Yanga-Mbiwa 29 fra 3 23 13 4 22 418 354 381 194 D_Welbeck 28 eng 2 3 12 24 23 598 242 909 32 2-4-1 swap for a top class outfield player - 25r dual rated or Top youth players or Good cash But any reasonable offers considered.
  8. 150 PAbs to T_Jumeau 159 PABs to C_Rowe 91 SABs to H_Knibbs Please. Thanks
  9. Villa get K_Zouma Derby get O_Borg + £15m Confirmed. Thanks @Dazoctaron
  10. Sorry I’ve been busy for a while, yeah happy - will post
  11. I was thinking £15m maybe?
  12. O_Borg 21 eng 2 24 10 3 18 300 134 885 513 plus a bit of cash?
×
×
  • Create New...